San Marino still have a chance of qualifying for the World Cup, but they find themselves in a very bizarre situation.
The European minnows are the lowest-ranked team on the continent and they have only ever won three of 219 total games. None of those wins though, have come in qualification for a major tournament such as the World Cup and European Championship.
And that streak has continued ahead of the former next summer, with San Marino losing all seven of their qualifiers so far. It leaves them bottom of Group H with a -31 goal difference, having conceded 32 goals and scored one in their outings.
How San Marino can qualify for the World Cup
It all comes down to San Marino's unlikely successes in the Nations League, which saw them top their group. They beat Liechtenstein twice during the League D group stage and also picked up a draw against Gibraltar.
Their incredible achievement meant they finished first and now have a chance of making the World Cup through that pathway. That is because the Nations League connects with the European qualification process for major tournaments.
The 12 World Cup qualifying group winners will take the automatic places in the competition next summer. But then, the four highest-ranked group winners in the Nations League – that do not qualify automatically for the World Cup as well – will form part of the seeded play-off rounds.
So, as they won their Nations League group, San Marino have a chance to claim a place in the European play-off system, which will include 16 teams and be played in March 2026. The 16 nations will be split into fours and compete on their own paths, with the winner of each four-team pathway achieving a place in the World Cup.
But San Marino will still need multiple things to fall into place for them to stand a chance of making the European play-offs.
What do San Marino need to qualify?
As mentioned, the top four highest-ranked group winners in the Nations League will compete in the European play-offs. Spain, Germany, Portugal, France, England, Norway, Czechia and North Macedonia all won their groups in the competition.
Each of them are in the top two of their World Cup qualifying groups too, meaning they're on track for automatic qualification. Sweden, Wales, Romania, Northern Ireland, Moldova and San Marino were the other Nations League winners.
But they are all outside the top two in World Cup qualifying as things stand, so they would be up for a play-off spot instead. Only four can claim those places though, leaving San Marino missing out as the lowest-ranked of the six nations.
However, they still stand a chance if future results go their way. Romania are in San Marino's group, currently sitting third, and could give them a helping hand by moving up to second. They take on Bosnia on November 15 before playing San Marino later that month in the final match of qualifying.
Bosnia are second in Group H and are three points above Romania, sitting on +8 goal difference compared to Romania's +5. Therefore, the tight goal difference could come into play, with the potential for the two teams to finish on the same points high.
It means Romania have a chance to leapfrog Bosnia and if that happens, San Marino could claim a World Cup qualifying place. And to help their own chances, San Marino are actually better off losing heavily in their game against the Romanians in November.
They will want to majorly boost their opponent's goal difference to potentially see them move above Bosnia, who play their final game of the group against runaway leaders Austria.
Of course, this all depends on Romania avoiding defeat against Bosnia in their meeting next month, with a positive result meaning a huge win over San Marino could bizarrely see the minnows qualify.
If Bosnia win against Romania or Austria though, San Marino's hopes of qualifying for the World Cup would all but disappear. They will also need Northern Ireland to reclaim their place back in the top two of their group and preferably the other group standings to stay the same.
